359.1
2024 Violent Crime Rate
Lowest since 2019
47 of 51
States With Crime Decline
Violent crime decreased 2023-2024
5
2024 Murder Rate (per 100k)
Same as pre-pandemic (2019: 5)
This data must be interpreted carefully. Multiple confounding factors make it impossible to attribute crime trends to any single cause.
- 1.No 2025-2026 crime data yet — The FBI has not published crime statistics for 2025 or 2026, so the impact of the current enforcement surge cannot be measured with crime data.
- 2.Crime decline predates enforcement — The national violent crime decline began in 2022, years before the current immigration enforcement expansion.
- 3.Immigration surged while crime fell — SW border encounters hit record highs in 2021-2023 (2,475,669 in FY2023) while violent crime dropped every year from 2022 onward.
- 4.Post-pandemic reversion — COVID-era disruptions (economic shutdowns, policing reductions, court backlogs) drove the 2020-2021 crime spike. The subsequent decline is partly normalization to pre-pandemic levels.
- 5.Police staffing recovery — Law enforcement agencies rebuilt staffing levels after significant losses during 2020-2021, contributing to improved crime response.
- 6.Economic recovery — Unemployment fell significantly between 2022-2024, a factor historically correlated with crime reduction.
- 7.State policy variation — Bail reform, prosecution priorities, policing strategies, and sentencing guidelines differ substantially across states, affecting crime rates independently.
- 8.Correlation ≠ causation — Many factors affect crime rates simultaneously. Showing two trends alongside each other does not establish that one caused the other.
FBI UCR violent crime and murder rates per 100,000 population
Dashed line marks 2020 pandemic onset. Crime spiked 2020-2021 and has declined since 2022.
Each dot is a state. X-axis: ICE arrests per 100k population. Y-axis: violent crime rate % change (2023 to 2024).
2023 vs 2024 crime rates for the top 10 states by ICE arrest volume
Click any column header to sort. Crime rates are per 100,000 population.
| StateState | ICE ArrestsICE Arrests | Per 100k/100k | Est. UndocumentedEst. Undoc. | Undoc. per 100kUndoc./100k | VC 2023VC 2023 | VC 2024VC 2024 | VC ChangeVC Change | Murder 2023Murder 2023 | Murder 2024Murder 2024 | Murder ChangeMurder Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 5,427 | 17.8 | 1,600,000 | 5 | 400.5 | 386.9 | -3.4% | 5.9 | 5.1 | -13.6% |
| California | 3,848 | 9.9 | 1,800,000 | 5 | 430.2 | 414.8 | -3.6% | 5.7 | 4.9 | -14.0% |
| Florida | 2,580 | 11.4 | 775,000 | 3 | 342.1 | 331.8 | -3.0% | 5.5 | 4.8 | -12.7% |
| Arizona | 784 | 10.6 | 275,000 | 4 | 400.2 | 384.7 | -3.9% | 6.6 | 5.8 | -12.1% |
| New York | 717 | 3.7 | 725,000 | 4 | 350.5 | 336.2 | -4.1% | 4.2 | 3.6 | -14.3% |
| Georgia | 614 | 5.6 | 375,000 | 3 | 369.5 | 358.2 | -3.1% | 7.1 | 6.1 | -14.1% |
| New Jersey | 604 | 6.5 | 475,000 | 5 | 195.4 | 189.6 | -3.0% | 3.3 | 2.9 | -12.1% |
| Pennsylvania | 572 | 4.4 | 170,000 | 1 | 306.7 | 297.1 | -3.1% | 5.9 | 5.1 | -13.6% |
| Tennessee | 572 | 8.0 | 120,000 | 2 | 595.8 | 574.5 | -3.6% | 8.4 | 7.3 | -13.1% |
| Louisiana | 548 | 12.0 | 55,000 | 1 | 564.3 | 539.8 | -4.3% | 13.5 | 11.6 | -14.1% |
| Minnesota | 478 | 8.3 | 95,000 | 2 | 265.8 | 258.7 | -2.7% | 3.1 | 2.7 | -12.9% |
| Virginia | 471 | 5.4 | 275,000 | 3 | 200.1 | 194.3 | -2.9% | 4.6 | 4.1 | -10.9% |
| Mississippi | 468 | 15.9 | 25,000 | 1 | 291.2 | 282.4 | -3.0% | 10.6 | 9.2 | -13.2% |
| North Carolina | 461 | 4.3 | 300,000 | 3 | 384.1 | 373.8 | -2.7% | 6.9 | 6.1 | -11.6% |
| Illinois | 456 | 3.6 | 400,000 | 3 | 381.4 | 365.8 | -4.1% | 7.6 | 6.4 | -15.8% |
| Utah | 408 | 11.9 | 75,000 | 2 | 233.4 | 228.1 | -2.3% | 2.2 | 2.0 | -9.1% |
| Arkansas | 372 | 12.1 | 55,000 | 2 | 580.1 | 563.4 | -2.9% | 10.3 | 9.1 | -11.7% |
| Washington | 344 | 4.4 | 250,000 | 3 | 367.8 | 356.4 | -3.1% | 3.7 | 3.2 | -13.5% |
| Colorado | 333 | 5.7 | 175,000 | 3 | 399.2 | 387.3 | -3.0% | 5.5 | 4.7 | -14.5% |
| Oklahoma | 332 | 8.2 | 85,000 | 2 | 410.8 | 399.3 | -2.8% | 7.3 | 6.4 | -12.3% |
| Massachusetts | 315 | 4.5 | 200,000 | 3 | 308.1 | 298.5 | -3.1% | 2.3 | 2.1 | -8.7% |
| Indiana | 312 | 4.5 | 100,000 | 1 | 370.1 | 361.5 | -2.3% | 7.2 | 6.5 | -9.7% |
| Maryland | 285 | 4.6 | 250,000 | 4 | 395.6 | 372.5 | -5.8% | 8.1 | 6.6 | -18.5% |
| South Carolina | 272 | 5.1 | 100,000 | 2 | 486.2 | 471.5 | -3.0% | 8.5 | 7.5 | -11.8% |
| Nevada | 271 | 8.5 | 170,000 | 5 | 441.5 | 425.8 | -3.6% | 7.8 | 6.7 | -14.1% |
| Alabama | 253 | 5.0 | 55,000 | 1 | 453.6 | 437.2 | -3.6% | 8.9 | 7.8 | -12.4% |
| Ohio | 252 | 2.1 | 100,000 | 1 | 293.8 | 286.1 | -2.6% | 5.6 | 5.0 | -10.7% |
| Kentucky | 246 | 5.4 | 40,000 | 1 | 237.4 | 232.1 | -2.2% | 5.8 | 5.2 | -10.3% |
| New Mexico | 231 | 10.9 | 75,000 | 4 | 778.2 | 756.1 | -2.8% | 10.8 | 9.3 | -13.9% |
| Wisconsin | 218 | 3.7 | 80,000 | 1 | 300.8 | 292.5 | -2.8% | 4.3 | 3.8 | -11.6% |
| Michigan | 202 | 2.0 | 100,000 | 1 | 411.3 | 398.2 | -3.2% | 6.7 | 5.9 | -11.9% |
| Missouri | 198 | 3.2 | 50,000 | 1 | 495.2 | 477.4 | -3.6% | 9.8 | 8.4 | -14.3% |
| Kansas | 186 | 6.3 | 65,000 | 2 | 395.7 | 382.1 | -3.4% | 5.3 | 4.6 | -13.2% |
| Oregon | 175 | 4.1 | 110,000 | 3 | 291.8 | 283.5 | -2.8% | 3.4 | 3.0 | -11.8% |
| Iowa | 172 | 5.4 | 40,000 | 1 | 282.9 | 275.6 | -2.6% | 3.1 | 2.7 | -12.9% |
| Idaho | 151 | 7.7 | 35,000 | 2 | 228.2 | 222.8 | -2.4% | 2.1 | 1.9 | -9.5% |
| Nebraska | 151 | 7.6 | 45,000 | 2 | 298.7 | 290.5 | -2.7% | 3.2 | 2.8 | -12.5% |
| West Virginia | 118 | 6.7 | 5,000 | 0 | 289.4 | 285.2 | -1.5% | 5.4 | 5.0 | -7.4% |
| Connecticut | 101 | 2.8 | 110,000 | 3 | 181.7 | 174.9 | -3.7% | 3.2 | 2.8 | -12.5% |
| Rhode Island | 66 | 6.0 | 30,000 | 3 | 218.4 | 213.8 | -2.1% | 2.5 | 2.3 | -8.0% |
| Delaware | 51 | 5.0 | 25,000 | 2 | 412.5 | 396.0 | -4.0% | 7.8 | 6.5 | -16.7% |
| Wyoming | 39 | 6.7 | 5,000 | 1 | 212.5 | 217.8 | +2.5% | 2.7 | 2.9 | +7.4% |
| District of Columbia | 36 | 5.3 | 25,000 | 4 | 812.5 | 758.3 | -6.7% | 24.2 | 19.8 | -18.2% |
| South Dakota | 34 | 3.7 | 10,000 | 1 | 427.1 | 434.8 | +1.8% | 4.1 | 4.3 | +4.9% |
| New Hampshire | 33 | 2.4 | 15,000 | 1 | 146.4 | 142.9 | -2.4% | 1.3 | 1.2 | -7.7% |
| Hawaii | 25 | 1.7 | 40,000 | 3 | 274.5 | 269.0 | -2.0% | 2.4 | 2.2 | -8.3% |
| North Dakota | 24 | 3.1 | 10,000 | 1 | 306.8 | 312.4 | +1.8% | 3.5 | 3.6 | +2.9% |
| Maine | 21 | 1.5 | 10,000 | 1 | 108.6 | 106.2 | -2.2% | 1.7 | 1.5 | -11.8% |
| Montana | 14 | 1.2 | 5,000 | 0 | 389.5 | 381.1 | -2.2% | 3.8 | 3.5 | -7.9% |
| Alaska | 12 | 1.6 | 15,000 | 2 | 837.8 | 812.5 | -3.0% | 9.1 | 7.9 | -13.2% |
| Vermont | 7 | 1.1 | 5,000 | 1 | 172.8 | 175.2 | +1.4% | 2.0 | 2.1 | +5.0% |
FBI Crime Data: National and state-level crime statistics from the FBI Uniform Crime Report (UCR) program and National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). National trends cover 2000-2024. State-level data covers 2010-2024 rates per 100,000 population (2023-2024 are direct FBI figures; 2010-2022 are estimated via national trend scaling).
ICE Arrest Data: Immigration enforcement arrest counts from DHS Weekly Operational Wrap-up (WOW) public records. Per-capita rates calculated using 2023 Census population estimates.
Undocumented Population Estimates: State-level estimates of the undocumented immigrant population come from Pew Research Center and the Migration Policy Institute (~2022 estimates). These are inherently approximate and do not capture short-term fluctuations. Per-capita rates use 2023 Census population.
Border Encounter Data: Southwest border encounter totals from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) by fiscal year. Encounters include apprehensions and expulsions but do not represent unique individuals.
Important Caveats:
- Correlation does not imply causation. Many factors affect crime rates beyond immigration enforcement.
- The 2021 NIBRS transition caused reporting gaps in some states, making year-over-year comparisons less reliable for that period.
- Crime decline began nationally in 2022, before the current enforcement surge.
- No 2025-2026 FBI crime data is available. The impact of the current enforcement expansion cannot be measured with published crime statistics yet.
- Florida 2024 data may be underestimated due to limited law enforcement reporting.
- FBI revised 2023 violent crime figures upward in a later release; original published figures are used here for consistency.
- Undocumented population estimates carry significant uncertainty and may not reflect current conditions.
Sources: FBI Crime Data Explorer (crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov), Bureau of Justice Statistics, DHS public records, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Census Bureau population estimates, Pew Research Center, Migration Policy Institute.